The "guilty" plea entered by the Lib Dems' former energy spokesman Chris Huhne on a charge of perverting the course of justice is fantastic news. The person who more than anybody else must take the blame for our appallingly expensive energy bills has seen his political career bite the dust as a result of claims that he persuaded his former wife to take speeding points on his behalf.
The speeding incident took place when he was an MEP. Now most people who witness first hand the sick joke that is the European Parliament must surely go away wondering what on earth Britain was doing ever to have found itself mixed up in this charade. Not, however, if you are an ambitious career politician, and Mr Huhne was ambitious - indeed, he might have been a successor fo Nick Clegg as leader of the Lib Dems (assuming there will be anything left to lead by the time Clegg steps down) were it not for the speeding incident. He was also an ardent advocate of wind farms, and in 2010, he cheated on his wife, and now lives in sin. Need one say any more? He epitomised everything that is wrong with so many of today's politicians.
His formal resignation as MP for Eastleigh is expected imminently, triggereing a by-election that could possibly take place on May 2nd - the same day as the local government elections. The constituency is a Tory/Lib Dem marginal. Labour's share of the vote fell below 10% in 2010, which is remarkably low given that the town at the heart of the constitency is a railway town with a distinct working class feel. The UKIP branch in the area is well-established and pretty strong.
Which all points to the most fascinating by-election in years. The Lib Dem vote has crashed in all recent elections, and is likely to do so in Eastleigh too. Who will benefit? The Tories would like to re-take a seat they held for over 40 years until 1994, but David Cameron's modernising agenda is not proving popular with the electorate - or indeed with many in his own party, and particularly in the wake of the gay marriage debate tomorrow, the Tories cannot take victory for granted. Labour may well see their share of the vote rise significantly, but outside the town of Eastleigh itself, there are few likely Labour voters in the middle-class sprawl of Chandler's Ford to the immediate west or the smaller affluent villages like Botley and Bursledon to the south east. It's hard to see them winning. UKIP are looking to capture Labour voters as well as disillusioned Tories. No doubt they will mount an enthusiastic campaign, with their more sanguine supporters no doubt anticipating the first elected UKIP MP. I wouldn't go this far, but bearing in mind the party's performance in the solid Labour seat of Rotherham, where it polled over 21%, Nigel Farage's party will certainly have a major impact on the result.
A failure to recapture the seat would be an embarrassment for Cameron, but could it be more than that? Anecdoatal evidence suggests that the modernising agenda is driving away Tory activists and voters. There is talk of a plot to oust Cameron, but then there was talk of a plot over a year ago, and nothing happened. The EU referendum announcement has given the party something of a boost, so the plotters (if they actually exist) will need to bide their time. However, after May 2nd, particularly if failure at Eastleigh is accompanied by a bad showing in the local government elections, the widespread dislike of David Cameron by the Tory rank and file may generate a new head of steam. Tories don't show any mercy to leaders who are losers, as John Major, William Hague, Iain Duncan-Smith all found out, so if the "referendum bounce" has all but evaporated in the neighbourhood of Eastleigh and district in three months' time, expect a few knives to be sharpened.......
The speeding incident took place when he was an MEP. Now most people who witness first hand the sick joke that is the European Parliament must surely go away wondering what on earth Britain was doing ever to have found itself mixed up in this charade. Not, however, if you are an ambitious career politician, and Mr Huhne was ambitious - indeed, he might have been a successor fo Nick Clegg as leader of the Lib Dems (assuming there will be anything left to lead by the time Clegg steps down) were it not for the speeding incident. He was also an ardent advocate of wind farms, and in 2010, he cheated on his wife, and now lives in sin. Need one say any more? He epitomised everything that is wrong with so many of today's politicians.
His formal resignation as MP for Eastleigh is expected imminently, triggereing a by-election that could possibly take place on May 2nd - the same day as the local government elections. The constituency is a Tory/Lib Dem marginal. Labour's share of the vote fell below 10% in 2010, which is remarkably low given that the town at the heart of the constitency is a railway town with a distinct working class feel. The UKIP branch in the area is well-established and pretty strong.
Which all points to the most fascinating by-election in years. The Lib Dem vote has crashed in all recent elections, and is likely to do so in Eastleigh too. Who will benefit? The Tories would like to re-take a seat they held for over 40 years until 1994, but David Cameron's modernising agenda is not proving popular with the electorate - or indeed with many in his own party, and particularly in the wake of the gay marriage debate tomorrow, the Tories cannot take victory for granted. Labour may well see their share of the vote rise significantly, but outside the town of Eastleigh itself, there are few likely Labour voters in the middle-class sprawl of Chandler's Ford to the immediate west or the smaller affluent villages like Botley and Bursledon to the south east. It's hard to see them winning. UKIP are looking to capture Labour voters as well as disillusioned Tories. No doubt they will mount an enthusiastic campaign, with their more sanguine supporters no doubt anticipating the first elected UKIP MP. I wouldn't go this far, but bearing in mind the party's performance in the solid Labour seat of Rotherham, where it polled over 21%, Nigel Farage's party will certainly have a major impact on the result.
A failure to recapture the seat would be an embarrassment for Cameron, but could it be more than that? Anecdoatal evidence suggests that the modernising agenda is driving away Tory activists and voters. There is talk of a plot to oust Cameron, but then there was talk of a plot over a year ago, and nothing happened. The EU referendum announcement has given the party something of a boost, so the plotters (if they actually exist) will need to bide their time. However, after May 2nd, particularly if failure at Eastleigh is accompanied by a bad showing in the local government elections, the widespread dislike of David Cameron by the Tory rank and file may generate a new head of steam. Tories don't show any mercy to leaders who are losers, as John Major, William Hague, Iain Duncan-Smith all found out, so if the "referendum bounce" has all but evaporated in the neighbourhood of Eastleigh and district in three months' time, expect a few knives to be sharpened.......