Yesterday, as widely expected David Cameron promised the British electorate an in/out referendum on our continued membership of the European Union in 2017 following his attempts- if he is still Prime Minister - to re-negotiate our terms of membership.
The issue of whether he will still be Prime Minister isn't the only unanswered question. What would he atempt to re-negotiate? Would the other 27 member states agree to special terms for the UK?
However, the most immediate question is what will Ed Miliband do? Yesterday, he criticised the Cameron speech and said that "we don't want an in-out referendum." However, Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander appeared to be striking a different tone - in effect, "we don't want a refererendum yet." I suspect that there will be some serious discussion taking place among the shadow cabinet, especially bearing in mind that most recent opinion polls, taken before Cameron's speech but after its contents had been widely circulated, showed a substantial narrowing of their lead over the Conservatives. Cameron certainly hasn't done anything else likely to have boosted his party's popularity.
Trawl the blogosphere and you will find a thousand and one comments about the motives for the speech and the likelihood of the referendum actually taking place. Personally, I think it is highly likely that whoever is in power after 2015, a referendum will take place with the leaders of both main parties campaigning for us to stay in. (Forget the Lib Dems being a "major party" by then - will they even exist after 2015? I hope not!) Lined up alongside them will be the BBC and certain senior figures in big business, particularly those who have big lobbying interests in Brussels. They have already spelt out their message - "Brixit" means loss of jobs, of investment, of influence, etc. This group has already shown that it wields considerable clout, as a recent YouGuv opinion poll recorded the lowest support for withdrawal in any poll for several months.
However, I believe that the "out" camp can win a referendum, and will be praying that they will. The EU will be helping our cause, Firstly comes the influx of Romanians and Bulgarians, conveniently just in time for ther 2014 European Parliamentary elections. Secondly, the European Parliament, Commission and Council will not be going into hibernation until 2017. Further directives will continue to pour out of Brussels to the disadvantage of British industry, the City of London and the British taxpayer.
However, to capitalise on the widespread hostility of the British people to the EU, the "out" camp need to up their game. Firstly, it is important to note that the big business figures supporting continuing membership such as Richard Branson are by no means speaking for the entire business community. There are small businessmen and big businessmen alike who would prefer Britain to leave for good sound financial reasons. A few are beiginning to speak up. They need to say a lot more, The case has to be made that even if there may be a short period of upheaval if we left, it would be a catharsis - a purging out of job-destroying regulation - after which we could look forward to the sort of growth which has so far eluded George Osborne. We need to find overseas companies who would gladly increase their investment in Britain post-EU because there would be less red tape, such as the Working Time Directive, Agency Workers' Directive or minimum wage legislation, and publicise their comments.
Next, we need to educate the British people. If even politicians don't seem to know the dfifference between the Single Market and a Free Trade agreement, what hope do we have with Joe Public? I think that if we say it enough, things will begin to filter through: As Britain and the EU are both members of the World Trade Organisation, they would be required to seek a Free Trade agreement with us if we left. We don't have to be in the EU to trade with the EU. REPEAT: We don't have to be in the EU to trade with the EU.
It's worth remembering that most of the electorate are not political anoraks and therefore don't spend hours researching the pros and cons of our EU membership. They therefore are largely unaware of just how widespread and corrosive EU legislation is. Whatever your concern, be it the cost of food, the cost of energy or even gardening, DIY or leisure boating, there will be some directive somewhere which has upped the costs or banned this or that. A number of well-written and well-targeted leaflets are capable of winning over the waverers.
We also need as many intelligent, rational spokesmen and women as possible. It irritates me immensely that anyone advocating withdrawal, especially if they happen to be a prominent meber of UKIP or a Tory Back Bencher is portrayed by the left-of-centre media as some sort of nutcase. OK, perhaps there are a few oddballs around, but there are plenty of sensible people capable of making sound arguments that stack up. How they can be promoted in the media I don't know, but good organisations producing good research in a well-presented way will force the media to take notice.
I have studied the arguments on both sdes, and I am convinced that supporters of continuning UK membership of the EU are guilty of dishonesty and scaremongering. They talk of Britain "sleepwalking" towards an EU exit, as if we were doing so with our eyes closed. Not at all. The arguments for withdrawal are rational, sensible and beneficial to all but a few. I for one am looking towards that exit door with my eyes fully open. There's a long way to go before we get there, but thank you, Mr Cameron, for taking us one step nearer.
The issue of whether he will still be Prime Minister isn't the only unanswered question. What would he atempt to re-negotiate? Would the other 27 member states agree to special terms for the UK?
However, the most immediate question is what will Ed Miliband do? Yesterday, he criticised the Cameron speech and said that "we don't want an in-out referendum." However, Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander appeared to be striking a different tone - in effect, "we don't want a refererendum yet." I suspect that there will be some serious discussion taking place among the shadow cabinet, especially bearing in mind that most recent opinion polls, taken before Cameron's speech but after its contents had been widely circulated, showed a substantial narrowing of their lead over the Conservatives. Cameron certainly hasn't done anything else likely to have boosted his party's popularity.
Trawl the blogosphere and you will find a thousand and one comments about the motives for the speech and the likelihood of the referendum actually taking place. Personally, I think it is highly likely that whoever is in power after 2015, a referendum will take place with the leaders of both main parties campaigning for us to stay in. (Forget the Lib Dems being a "major party" by then - will they even exist after 2015? I hope not!) Lined up alongside them will be the BBC and certain senior figures in big business, particularly those who have big lobbying interests in Brussels. They have already spelt out their message - "Brixit" means loss of jobs, of investment, of influence, etc. This group has already shown that it wields considerable clout, as a recent YouGuv opinion poll recorded the lowest support for withdrawal in any poll for several months.
However, I believe that the "out" camp can win a referendum, and will be praying that they will. The EU will be helping our cause, Firstly comes the influx of Romanians and Bulgarians, conveniently just in time for ther 2014 European Parliamentary elections. Secondly, the European Parliament, Commission and Council will not be going into hibernation until 2017. Further directives will continue to pour out of Brussels to the disadvantage of British industry, the City of London and the British taxpayer.
However, to capitalise on the widespread hostility of the British people to the EU, the "out" camp need to up their game. Firstly, it is important to note that the big business figures supporting continuing membership such as Richard Branson are by no means speaking for the entire business community. There are small businessmen and big businessmen alike who would prefer Britain to leave for good sound financial reasons. A few are beiginning to speak up. They need to say a lot more, The case has to be made that even if there may be a short period of upheaval if we left, it would be a catharsis - a purging out of job-destroying regulation - after which we could look forward to the sort of growth which has so far eluded George Osborne. We need to find overseas companies who would gladly increase their investment in Britain post-EU because there would be less red tape, such as the Working Time Directive, Agency Workers' Directive or minimum wage legislation, and publicise their comments.
Next, we need to educate the British people. If even politicians don't seem to know the dfifference between the Single Market and a Free Trade agreement, what hope do we have with Joe Public? I think that if we say it enough, things will begin to filter through: As Britain and the EU are both members of the World Trade Organisation, they would be required to seek a Free Trade agreement with us if we left. We don't have to be in the EU to trade with the EU. REPEAT: We don't have to be in the EU to trade with the EU.
It's worth remembering that most of the electorate are not political anoraks and therefore don't spend hours researching the pros and cons of our EU membership. They therefore are largely unaware of just how widespread and corrosive EU legislation is. Whatever your concern, be it the cost of food, the cost of energy or even gardening, DIY or leisure boating, there will be some directive somewhere which has upped the costs or banned this or that. A number of well-written and well-targeted leaflets are capable of winning over the waverers.
We also need as many intelligent, rational spokesmen and women as possible. It irritates me immensely that anyone advocating withdrawal, especially if they happen to be a prominent meber of UKIP or a Tory Back Bencher is portrayed by the left-of-centre media as some sort of nutcase. OK, perhaps there are a few oddballs around, but there are plenty of sensible people capable of making sound arguments that stack up. How they can be promoted in the media I don't know, but good organisations producing good research in a well-presented way will force the media to take notice.
I have studied the arguments on both sdes, and I am convinced that supporters of continuning UK membership of the EU are guilty of dishonesty and scaremongering. They talk of Britain "sleepwalking" towards an EU exit, as if we were doing so with our eyes closed. Not at all. The arguments for withdrawal are rational, sensible and beneficial to all but a few. I for one am looking towards that exit door with my eyes fully open. There's a long way to go before we get there, but thank you, Mr Cameron, for taking us one step nearer.