It wasn't just our country which saw a "political earthquake" in the European Parliamentary elections. The Front National, led by Marine le Pen, topped the poll in France.
Mrs le Pen has tried to "de-toxify" the party since taking over from her father as leader. She has distanced herself from some of his more outspoken remarks about the holocaust, although her rhetoric on immigration has still sounded pretty tough. She has also ended his short-lived flirtation with free market economics, taking the typically anti-free trade protectionist view of the economy which has been predominant in French politics since the days of Jean-Baptiste Colbert, Louis XIV's finance minister.
Now Mrs le Pen is no more about to take up residence in the Elysée Palace than Nigel Farage is preparing to move into Number 10, but French politics is in such a state of turmoil that anything might be possible in a few years' time. The ruling socialists are in utter disarray. President Hollande has managed to achieve the worst popularity ratings in modern French history while the centre-right UMP is embroiled in a funding scandal which, had it broken before the elections, could have resulted in an even more emphatic victory for the FN.
All this has doubtless created great concern to the bureaucrats in Brussels, but whatever unpleasant language they may use in describing the FN, they will not be able to ignore it.
And here is a point which few commentators have picked up. France and the UK may have both embraced euroscepticism in a big way but their protest parties otherwise have little in common. UKIP, and indeed the Tories, are free traders. Whatever topics David Cameron may or may not lay on the table if and when he starts discussing reform of the EU, he supports markets being opened up and subsidies cut. Marine le Pen wants the opposite and even if she is never able to become the next Joan of Arc, leading the French to a new age of glory, French politics as a whole looks likely to move in a more protectionist direction.
So which of the two big troublesome member states will the powers-that-be in the EU, particularly Germany's Angela Merkel, be more sympathetic to? On the face of it, her party, the German CDU, is closer to David Cameron economically, but economics may not be the prime consideration. At the very heart of the EU is the Franco-German alliance. One of the key objectives in setting up the original EEC was to prevent any further wars between these two nations. The Elysée treaty of 1964, signed by France's General de Gaulle and the German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer, not only sought to reconcile the two nations but to ensure their joint leadership of the European project. The two nations are now very unequally yoked, with France's economy in a dreadful state while Germany's mighty manufacturing sector continues to prosper - well, relatively. Nonetheless, given a choice between alienating France or the bolshy Brits, it is more likely that David Cameron will be the loser as losing France would mean the end of the EU. This means French opposition to the much-vaunted US/EU free trade deal, which will most likely become more vocal, will be hard to ignore. Given that according to Open Europe,only 28.1% of MEPs in the new European Parliament support free market policies, the whole deal, greatly talked up by David Cameron, could unravel completely along with any hopes of even pretending to reform the EU in a manner acceptable to British business. Truly Colbert's ghost may be coming to the UK's aid to precipitate our independence!
Mrs le Pen has tried to "de-toxify" the party since taking over from her father as leader. She has distanced herself from some of his more outspoken remarks about the holocaust, although her rhetoric on immigration has still sounded pretty tough. She has also ended his short-lived flirtation with free market economics, taking the typically anti-free trade protectionist view of the economy which has been predominant in French politics since the days of Jean-Baptiste Colbert, Louis XIV's finance minister.
Now Mrs le Pen is no more about to take up residence in the Elysée Palace than Nigel Farage is preparing to move into Number 10, but French politics is in such a state of turmoil that anything might be possible in a few years' time. The ruling socialists are in utter disarray. President Hollande has managed to achieve the worst popularity ratings in modern French history while the centre-right UMP is embroiled in a funding scandal which, had it broken before the elections, could have resulted in an even more emphatic victory for the FN.
All this has doubtless created great concern to the bureaucrats in Brussels, but whatever unpleasant language they may use in describing the FN, they will not be able to ignore it.
And here is a point which few commentators have picked up. France and the UK may have both embraced euroscepticism in a big way but their protest parties otherwise have little in common. UKIP, and indeed the Tories, are free traders. Whatever topics David Cameron may or may not lay on the table if and when he starts discussing reform of the EU, he supports markets being opened up and subsidies cut. Marine le Pen wants the opposite and even if she is never able to become the next Joan of Arc, leading the French to a new age of glory, French politics as a whole looks likely to move in a more protectionist direction.
So which of the two big troublesome member states will the powers-that-be in the EU, particularly Germany's Angela Merkel, be more sympathetic to? On the face of it, her party, the German CDU, is closer to David Cameron economically, but economics may not be the prime consideration. At the very heart of the EU is the Franco-German alliance. One of the key objectives in setting up the original EEC was to prevent any further wars between these two nations. The Elysée treaty of 1964, signed by France's General de Gaulle and the German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer, not only sought to reconcile the two nations but to ensure their joint leadership of the European project. The two nations are now very unequally yoked, with France's economy in a dreadful state while Germany's mighty manufacturing sector continues to prosper - well, relatively. Nonetheless, given a choice between alienating France or the bolshy Brits, it is more likely that David Cameron will be the loser as losing France would mean the end of the EU. This means French opposition to the much-vaunted US/EU free trade deal, which will most likely become more vocal, will be hard to ignore. Given that according to Open Europe,only 28.1% of MEPs in the new European Parliament support free market policies, the whole deal, greatly talked up by David Cameron, could unravel completely along with any hopes of even pretending to reform the EU in a manner acceptable to British business. Truly Colbert's ghost may be coming to the UK's aid to precipitate our independence!